暴涨的大麻概念股票:这只是一个泡沫游戏,还是真正的成长?

加拿大最大的医用大麻生产商-冠军成长股份有限公司Canopy Growth Corp.(TSX:WEED)的股价在过去一个月中翻了一番。投资者很少看到这种股价上涨,特别是当许多分析师提高红旗并将加拿大大麻股票称为资产泡沫的典型例子时。

但是,尽管有这些警告,但在几个星期之内有机会将投资翻倍的时候,很难抵制诱惑。让我们看看加拿大最大的大麻生产商Canopy Growth是否仍然是一个好买盘,或者如果我们需要小心这些极高的估值。

2018年展望

加拿大大麻库存的增长势头主要来自于2018年7月1日潜在的游乐场所销售合法化。

加拿大将成为世界上仅次于乌拉圭的第二个合法化消费大麻的生产,销售和消费的国家。

为了在自己的期限之前做到这一点,联邦政府已经取得了很大的进展。在过去的六个月里,我们目睹了一些重大的事态发展,足以向投资者保证,联邦政府和各省在夏季之前认真组建法律和业务框架。

联邦政府和各省之间就休闲娱乐市场上的锅碗瓢盆销售收入达成协议,上个月达成协议,有效地消除了一个主要障碍。此前,加拿大下议院通过了一项法案,允许在该国消费大麻。这项法案现在在参议院辩论。

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风险要求预测

尽管有这些积极的发展,但许多分析师认为,在2017年获得三位数增长之后,Canopy股票已进入泡沫领域,因为预期需求和销售价格的规模仍存在很大的不确定性。也存在执行风险,很少有投资者担心。

到2021年,休闲娱乐用壶的市场规模估计将达到5-10亿美元。然而,这些预测假设黑色市场将会消失,大部分购买者将转向合法渠道。

但是,这个假设太乐观了。非法销售者仍然会有成本激励,因为他们会通过避免税收,法规和质量检查来降低成本。

尽管Canopy在加拿大大麻行业处于领先地位,但由于股价大幅上涨,风险持续上升。我认为几乎所有的利好消息都被纳入了当前的估值水平,我们现在看到的收益纯粹是投机性的。

底线

那些想在这个领域快速降压的投资者在跳上行情之前应该非常小心,因为基本面并不能证明这些价格是正当的,任何负面消息都可能会带来大幅调整。

对于长线投资者,我仍然推荐Canopy Growth股票,它的所有成分都成为娱乐市场上最大的玩家。Canopy通过收购和合作,一旦市场开放,就已经把自己定位在领先地位。


Canopy Growth Corp.?s (TSX:WEED) share price has doubled during the past month. Investors rarely see this kind of jump in share prices, especially when many analysts are raising the red flag and calling Canadian marijuana stocks a classic example of an asset bubble.

But despite these warnings, it?s hard to resist temptation when there?s a chance to double your investment in just a few weeks. Let?s see if Canopy Growth, Canada?s largest pot producer, is still a good buy or if we need to be careful on these extremely high valuations.

Prospects for 2018

The momentum you?re seeing in Canada?s cannabis stocks is mainly coming from the potential legalization of the recreational sale of pot as of July 1, 2018.

Canada will become only the second country in the world (after Uruguay) to legalize the production, sale, and consumption of recreational marijuana.

To make this happen before its self-imposed deadline, the federal government has made a great deal of progress. During the past six months, we have witnessed some major developments that were enough to assure investors that the federal government and provinces are serious about putting together a legal and operational framework before the summer.

An agreement between the federal government and the provinces over sharing tax revenues from pot sales in the recreational market was reached last month, effectively removing one of the major roadblocks. Earlier, Canada?s House of Commons passed a bill that will allow the recreational consumption of cannabis in the country. This bill is now up for debate in the Senate.

Risks to demand forecast

Despite these positive developments, many analysts believe that after the triple-digit gains of 2017, Canopy stock has entered a bubble territory, as there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the scale of expected demand and selling prices. There are also  execution risks, which very few investors seem to be concerned about.

The market for recreational pot is estimated to reach between $5-10 billion by 2021. However, these forecasts assume that the black market will simply disappear and that the majority of buyers will turn to the legal channels.

This assumption, however, is too optimistic. There will still be a cost incentive for illegal sellers, as they will keep their costs low by avoiding taxes, regulations, and quality checks.

Despite the Canopy?s leading position in Canada?s marijuana sector, the risks are rising for a sustained pullback after these massive gains in its stock price. I think almost all the positive news has been factored into the current valuations and that the gains we?re now seeing are purely speculative.

The bottom line

Investors who are thinking to make a quick buck in this space should be very careful before jumping on the bandwagon, as fundamentals don?t justify these prices and any negative news might bring a sharp correction.

For long-term investors, I still recommend Canopy Growth stock, which has all the ingredients to become the largest player in the recreational market. Canopy, through acquisitions and partnership, has positioned itself to lead the pack once the market is open.

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